lake powell water level forecast 2022
The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. By Leia Larsen. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. 192 0 obj <>stream The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. . In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. Gas Prices on Lake To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Lake Powell, Printable Version Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. google_color_text = "000000"; The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet google_color_url = "426C95"; Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. Water managers, who . SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Click for . Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. levels. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. SW Satellite Weather Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. Lake Powell